- NWS Worldwide Cyclones
Issued by: Tornadoes2010
October 29, 2010 @ 01:45 UTC
...ACTIVE NOVMBER EXPECTED...
November is usually the month of calm and peace. As we have saw in the past decade however, the possibility of big storms are still there. An example is last year, which produced Hurricane Ida, which was a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The system made landfall on Louisiana as a weak hurricane, causing one death and $6.1 million dollars in damage. The environment in the Caribbean, which is the typical place to look for development in the late season, is favorable for development this year, and this area should be the breeding ground for a couple of more named storms this season.
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is definitely lower than earlier this system, and it probably would not withstand an ongoing Rapid Intensification period like Hurricane Wilma (2005) did, but the possibility of RI is still very possible. With Sea Surface Temperatures still plenty warm, and little Dry Air and Wind Shear there, storms will have no problem strengthening in that area. So, here is the November predictions:
Tropical Depressions: 3
Tropical Storms: 3
Major Hurricanes: 0
We expect 3 Tropical Depressions and 3 Tropical Storms, which many would say, may be on the high side. However, with the possiblity of October ending with 4-6 named storms, it makes sense that November would have a little less activity than this month. 1 hurricane is expected in November, which would likely end up a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No Major Hurricanes are expected for November, but there is still a chance a storm could take advantage of the environment and strength significantly. The chances of this are low..
Worldwide Cyclones Team
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