FANDOM


ATTC
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...PAULA STRENGTHENS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
GUSTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGSEdit

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL MEXICO TO CANCUN MEXICO, INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL. A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NORTHERN BELIZE IS CANCELLED, BUT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BELIZE CITY TO CHETUMAL MEXICO REMAINS IN EFFECT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME WESTERN CUBA, FROM HAVANA TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE, INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO LIMON, HONDURAS, INCLUDING ISLA GUANAJA, BAHIA AND UTILA.

PROGNOSISEdit

FURTHER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE TEAM SUGGEST RAISING THE INTENSITY TO 50 KTS. PAULA IS STILL INTENSIFYING, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PAULA MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY TOMORROW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED EVEN MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED INTENSITY. PAULA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING. HOWEVER, PAST DAY 3, THE GUIDANCE FORECAST IS TROUBLESOME. FOR NOW, I WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMIC MODELS, AND A CUBAN DIRECT HIT IS FORECAST...FOR NOW. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA AND CUBA MUST WATCH WATCH OUT FOR THIS STORM.

FORECAST WINDSEdit

INITIAL 50 KTS
12HR 60 KTS
24HR 70 KTS
36HR 75 KTS
48HR 85 KTS
72HR 80 KTS INLAND
96HR 75 KTS OVER WATER
120HR 65 KTS NEAR CUBA

FORECASTER DARREN23

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