FANDOM


ATTC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL182010
11PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL, EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER WATER TOMORROW...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...13.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...145 KM SE OF PUERTO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/HR
GUSTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...12 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATHCES AND WARNINGSEdit

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA ARE CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW ISSUED FROM PUERTO CABEZAS, NICARAGUA ALL THE WAY TO PUERTO BARRIOS, GUATEMALA, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUERTO BARRIOS, GUATEMALA TO BELIZE CITY, BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO ISSUED FOR CHETUMAL, MEXICO TO PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS TO BLUEFIELDS, NICARAGUA.

PROGNOSISEdit

SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION, INCIDATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN INTENSITY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. WINDS REMAIN AT 25 KT. AND THE PRESSURE IS STILL AT 1005 MB. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MADE LANDFALL, APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NICAURAGA/HONDURAS BORDER. THIS IS LIKELY NOT THE LAST TIME WE HEAR FROM #18 HOWEVER, AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A NAMED STORM. IF IT DOES BECOME ONE, ITS NAME WILL BE PAULA. IT WOULD BE THE SIXTEENTH STORM OF THE HYPERACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON. THERE ARE MANY EVENTS AGAINST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER, LIKE A BARRIER OF DRY AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE MJO IS ALSO UNFAVORABLE, BEING IN A DOWNWARD PHASE. LASTLY, THE STORM IS UNDER MODERATE OF SHEAR OF UP TO 20 KNOTS. REGARDLESS, I STILL EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BEFORE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TO THE NE BEFORE MAKING AN IMPACT ON THE YUCATAN, ALSO.

FORECAST WINDSEdit

INITIAL 30 KTS OVERLAND
12HR 30 KTS
24HR 30 KTS
36HR 35 KTS
48HR 35 KTS
72HR 30 KTS
96HR 25 KTS REMNANT LOW
120HR DISSIPATING

FORECASTER TROPICALANALYSTWX13

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