ATTC
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY 13
NWS #WIKI-HURRICANES/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI ATTC18-13
845 PM CDT/745 PM CDT WED 14 OCT 2010
Observations from air recon reveal that Paula is weakening, with a central minimum pressure of 1000 mb. I'm actually really surprised that she has such a high pressure, but is still a minimal hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 75 mph, a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. However, she will not stay a hurricane long, as Wind Shear continues to eat at her convection and core, while the interaction with a landmass (Cuba), disruptes the system as a whole. All watches and warnings for the Yucatan have been cancelled, and there is a Hurricane Warning in effect for the whole extreme western part of Cuba. The Tropical Storm Watches for Florida are still in effect, although it is unlikely Florida will have any effects from Paula. If they do, the worst would be heavy rains.
Briefing[]
Center location: 22.8N 84.6W
Center confidence: ± 20 nm
Minimum central pressure: 1000 mb
Maximum sustained winds: 65 kts
Convection: Coldest cloud tops near -80°C
Shear: Southerly 10-20 kts
Structure: Curved banding, uniform CDO
Watches and Warnings[]
Hurricane warning: Western Cuba
Hurricane watch: None
Tropical Storm warning: None
Tropical Storm watch: In Florida: Lee, Collier, and Monroe.
Intensity Forecast[]
Initial - 65 kts (Category 1 hurricane)
12HR - 50 kts (Moderate Tropical Storm)
24HR - 40 kts (Tropical Depression)
36HR - 30 kts (Remnant Low)
48HR - 20 kts (Dissipated)
60HR - N/A
72HR - N/A
84HR - N/A
96HR - N/A
TropicalAnalystwx13 7:45 CDT, October 13, 2010 (UTC)