ATTC
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY 12
NWS #WIKI-HURRICANES/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI ATTC18-12
2345 UTC WED 13 OCT 2010
The satellite presentation of Hurricane Paula continues to decline this afternoon. The imagery shows that the low-level and mid-level centers may be departing, and that Paula's eyewall is becoming destroyed by the strong Wind Shear, and becoming open. The center is likely to be exposed soon, meaning that all the convection is likely to be blew away, leaving the center out in the open. If this occurs, its pretty likely Paula will dissipate shortly after. Regardless, its likely Paula is going to weaken into a Tropical Storm later tonight, and likely dissipate tomorrow night or Friday. Paula is currently moving to the NNE, which has it headed towards the state of Florida. However, the storm should turn some more as the day progresses, and make landfall on Western Cuba. There is a slim chance that Paula could end up a little further north, and for that reason, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the coastal in the state of Florida: Lee, Collier, and Monroe. Miami-Dade county is not included in this advisory, as it is unlikely Paula will come close to that county, with it being on the other side of the state.
Briefing[]
Center location: 21.8N 85.6W
Center confidence: ± 20 nm
Minimum central pressure: 986 mb
Maximum sustained winds: 65 kts
Convection: Coldest cloud tops near -80°C
Shear: Southerly 10-20 kts
Structure: Curved banding, uniform CDO
Watches and Warnings[]
Hurricane warning: Havana to Cayeria Las Cayamas
Hurricane watch: Puerto Barrios to Cancun
Tropical Storm warning: Toledo, Belize to Quintana Roo-Yucutan border
Tropical Storm watch: Toledo, Belize to Quintana Roo-Yucutan border, in Florida: Lee, Collier, and Monroe.
Intensity Forecast[]
Initial - 65 kts (Category 1 hurricane)
12HR - 45 kts (Moderate Tropical Storm)
24HR - 30 kts (Tropical Depression)
36HR - 30 kts (Remnant Low)
48HR - 20 kts (Dissipated)
60HR - N/A
72HR - N/A
84HR - N/A
96HR - N/A
TropicalAnalystwx13 23:45, October 13, 2010 (UTC)