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INVEST ADVISORY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL182010
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...THE EIGHTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2010 SEASON FORMS...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...13.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF PUERTO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/HR
GUSTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATHCES AND WARNINGSEdit

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA ARE CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW ISSUED FROM PUERTO CABEZAS, NICARAGUA ALL THE WAY TO PUERTO BARRIOS, GUATEMALA, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUERTO BARRIOS, GUATEMALA TO BELIZE CITY, BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO ISSUED FOR CHETUMAL, MEXICO TO PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS TO BLUEFIELDS, NICARAGUA.

PROGNOSISEdit

THE PRECURSOR INVEST UNEXPECTEDLY ORGANIZED AND ACCORDING TO AN ASCAT PASS, HAS A SLIGHTLY BROAD CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, IT IS BELIEVED THAT THIS CIRCULATION IS CLOSED, THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED. THE FUTURE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. THE FORECAST PATH TAKES IT OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS, NORTH OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUT WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. I PREDICT THAT THE STORM SHOULD EMERGE FROM LAND AND MIGHT HAVE TIME OVER WATER EAST OF BELIZE, DEPENDING ON SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TROUBLESOME. THE DEPRESSION MIGHT NOT GET ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM, BUT I WILL CHOSE TO SIDE WITH THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS, AND I PREDICT A WEAK TROPICAL STORM.

FORECAST WINDSEdit

INITIAL 25 KTS
12HR 30 KTS
24HR 35 KTS OVER LAND
36HR 30 KTS OVER LAND
48HR 35 KTS OVER WATER
72HR 30 KTS OVER LAND
96HR 25 KTS REMNANT LOW/POST-TROPICAL
120HR DISSIPATING

FORECASTER DARREN23

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