ATTC
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY 3
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL162011
2000 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011
Discussion[]
Ophelia nearly degenerated into an open wave last night however convection redeveloped over the LLC and the hurricane hunters have found 50kts surface winds. Ophelia is under a moderate amount of shear which is forecast to increase by the time she reaches the Caribbean, thus halting any intensification and slightly weakening Ophelia. Currently she is well stacked for her strength however dry air is being blown into the core because of the shear, this will be less of an issue when the shear lessens later.
Briefing[]
Center location: 15.5N 53.8W
Center confidence: ± 20 nm
Wind: 50 kts (60 mph)
Pressure: 1001 mb
Shear: Moderate (10 - 15 kts)
Structure: Sheared Pattern
Watches and Warnings[]
No watches or warnings issued!
Forecast[]
Initial: 50 kts
12hr: 50kts
24hr: 45kts
36hr: 40kts
48hr: 40kts
72hr: 40kts
96hr: 45kts
120hr: 50kts
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