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ATTC
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY 8
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL142011
2000 UTC THU SEP 15 2011


DiscussionEdit

Maria has improved steadily in organization in the past 24 hours and has organized sufficiently to be upgraded to the seasons third hurricane. Microwave imagery shows an eye feature and most Dvorak estimates show Maria as a minimal hurricane. Last night a burst of very deep convection had fired over the center and shear lessened enough for outflow bands to survive on the western side of Maria. Dry air is nearly nonexistent and shear has lessened significantly. Maria has held up well against the cold wake left by Katia and continues to be strengthening steadily. All models show Maria holding onto hurricane strength until she nears the island of Newfoundland. The current intensity forecast has Maria strengthening slightly over the next 24 hours as she remains in a favourable environment for strengthening however conditions go downhill quickly after 24 hours. She has made her closest approach to Bermuda and is now heading to Newfoundland and later expected be absorbed by a cold front just east of Newfoundland.

BriefingEdit

Center location: 33.8N 66.5W
Center confidence: ± 5 nm
Wind: 65 kts (75 mph)
Pressure: 989 mb
Shear: Moderate (10 - 15 kts)
Structure: Banding Eye Pattern

Watches and WarningsEdit

Tropical storm warning for Bermuda and Southeastern Newfoundland
Hurricane watch for Southeastern Newfoundland

ForecastEdit

Initial 65 kts
12hr 65 kts
24hr 70 kts
36hr 60kts
48hr 55kts Absorbed by cold front

$$ Yqt1001

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