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ATTC
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY 5
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL142011
2000 UTC MON SEP 12 2011


DiscussionEdit

Maria has become sheared apart today due to an upper low just to it's north. Because of this the initial intensity has been downgraded to 45kts. An intense burst of convection has just occurred to the east of the LLC and the LLC is no longer completely out from under deep convection. Since the LLC has been sheared out from under Maria she is no longer very well vertically stacked. Dry air has been causing some problems for Maria but it does not appear to be severely disrupting her deep convection. Maria is currently heading very slowly westward and is expected to turn northward and out to sea over the next few days.

BriefingEdit

Center location: 21.0N 67.5W
Center confidence: ± 5 nm
Wind: 45 kts (50 mph)
Pressure: 1005 mb
Shear: Very High (15 - 25 kts)
Structure: Shear Pattern

Watches and WarningsEdit

No Watches or Warnings in effect!

ForecastEdit

Initial: 45 kts
12hr: 45 kts
24hr: 50 kts
36hr: 50kts
48hr 55kts
72hr 60kts
96hr 55kts
120hr 50kts

$$ Yqt1001

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