FANDOM


ATTC

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY 4

NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL212010

03:00 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010


...TOMAS REACHERS HURRICANE STRENGTH, 11TH OF THIS HYPERACTIVE SEASON...

BRIEFINGEdit

CENTER LOCATION: 12.1N 60.1W

CENTER CONFIDENCE: ± 20 NM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KTS (75 MPH)

PRESSURE: 992 MB

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR: LOW (9 KTS OR LESS)

STRUCTURE: SPIRIAL BANDS, EYE, EYEALL

Watches and WarningsEdit

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...

  • ST. VINCENT
  • GRENADINES
  • MARTINIQUE
  • ST. LUCIA
  • TRINIDAD
  • TOBAGO
  • GRENADA


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

  • DOMINICA

DiscussionEdit

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD INTENSIFIED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...EXHIBITING WINDS OF ABOUT 60 MPH AND A PRESSURE OF 999 MB. SINCE THEN...THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A DEEP CONVECTICE BURST WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNASSANCE AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING AN EYEWALL. BASED ON THE CURRENT ORGANIZATIONAL TREND AND DVORAK T NUMBERS...THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL FOUR QUADRANTS DUE TO A WELL DEFINED 200MB ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN TANDEM WITH TOMAS FURTHER AIDING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.

TOMAS IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN 300/14. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS RIDGE IS BEING ERODED AWAY BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT. ONCE OUT OF THE PICTURE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD. THE FLOW SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE IS MAINLY EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY...SO A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE. SOME SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODING AT THE RIDGE TO AN EXTENT THAT A WEAKNESS IS INDUCED AND THE CYCLONE RECURVES TOWARDS THE NORTH. AT THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...SOME SHOW CONTINUE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AS THE TROUGH IS DEPICTED FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. AS OF THE 00Z PLOTS...THEY HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS THE LEFT.

AS FOR INTENSITY...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST BY MOST GLOBL MODELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONDUCIVE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN ADDITION...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 29C THRESHOLD AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. THE LARGEST IMPEDIMENT ON INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS WILL LIKELY BE CAUSED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND OTHER THINGS OF THAT NATURE.


ForecastEdit

INITIAL: 65 KTS - Category 1

12 HR: 75 KTS   - Category 1

24 HR: 90 KTS   - Category 2

48 HR: 100 KTS  - Category 3

72 HR: 105 KTS  - Category 3

96 HR: 115 KTS  - Category 4

120 HR: 125 KTS - Category 4

$$

FORECASTER TORNADOES2010

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